Scottish Opinion Polls Recent Scottish opinion polls. Under any election held on this basis, the Liberal Democrats would also be on course to gain 22 seats from the Conservatives. With Labour improving its polling position in Scotand, the party would now gain 12 seats off the SNP in Scotland, albeit the SNP would mitigate those losses slightly by gaining three seats from the Conservatives and one from the Lib Dems. In the run-up to the next Scottish Parliament election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions.Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Scottish election 2021: Polling expert says SNP majority 'on a knife-edge' Small movements in the polls between now and May 6 could make an "important difference to the outcome", according to . A Y N.B. Between January 2015 and December 2022 over 230 polls have been published and recorded in the main table. Kemi Badenoch, who has proved popular . All Rights Reserved. ", Question asked: "Would you vote SNP at the next General Election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK? Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. However, coinciding with the roll out of the coronavirus vaccine and the conclusion of Boris Johnsons Brexit deal at the end of 2020, the Conservative party once again opened up a significant election poll lead over Labour. Majority of people support NEU teacher strikes, YouGov poll finds Dorset Live 14:59 6-Feb-23. Big names to go would include Joanna Cherry and Mhairi Black. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. In the 2016 independence referendum, some 44.7% of Scottish voters backed Scotland becoming an independent country. Worst-case scenario could see 120,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter scientists, Watch: Gary Neville slams PM as he rages over brutal UC cut, French border guards warn this will be what it is like after Brexit. In February 2023, 47 percent of British adults would vote for the Labour Party in a . Yougov (February 20) which placed the Yes side on 46.2% and the No side on 53.8%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Britain Elects. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. If you can afford to contribute a small donation to the site it will help us to continue our work in the best interests of the public. Labour scalps would include Tommy Sheppard, Angus MacNeil, Douglas Chapman and Stewart McDonald. Support for Scottish independence nudged up to 50% for the first time in 2019, soon after Boris Johnson became prime minister. Charities & not-for-profit. The other tables reflect different ways questions around Independence can be asked, they may produce different results. Holy oil prepared to anoint King Charles III during coronation during ceremony in Jerusalem. On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? Trend support for the Green Party has nudged up slightly to the 5%-6% mark. In the early part of 2023, Labour had started to increase its polling lead again and was once again approaching 50% in the polls. All Rights Reserved. Business & professional services. Don't miss out! should not be a referendum on Scottish At 64 per cent, those respondents most likely to lean towards voting Green at the next election were also most likely to say that they support the GRR bill and that the UK Governments veto was wrong. The Yes side grew further, in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Scotlands political landscape after Nicola Sturgeon? Those SNP MPs to lose their seats would include Amy Callaghan in East Dunbartonshire (to the Lib Dems) and Richard Thomson in Gordon (to the Tories). As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. An existing account was found for this email address. Please click 'Create Account and Subscribe' to create a new account and subscribe to our email alerts. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here. In all polls the dont knows are removed. A majority of Scots back same-sex marriage, according to the most detailed survey of public opinion since MSPs began moves to change the law. YouGov poll, reported in the Telegraph on 31 Jan 2023Full results, The Times poll, conducted by YouGov, reported on 21 Jan 2023, Wings Over Scotland/The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 19 Dec 2022: Why do SNP voters hate women?, The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 17 Dec 2022, The Times poll, reported on 16 Oct 2022Full results. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. This lead was trending at around 8% at the point that Liz Truss became prime minister in September 2022. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the next UK General Election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. Where does the public really stand on womens rights and proposals to reform the Gender Recognition Act? Week-in-Review: Covid sleaze is back and more politically potent than ever, Former Conservative party chairman: Sue Gray appointment proves Starmer is man of the establishment. However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. A total of 21 per cent said they didnt know., UnHerd Britain 2023, published on 10 Feb 2023Full results, YouGov poll, reported in The Times on 05 Feb 2023. The headline data used in calculating these averages has been drawn from that laid out in the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Opinium, Survation, SavantaComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Techne, Delta Poll,and Ipsos Mori. Most polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. According to YouGov's latest poll of Welsh voters, the Tories are set to be left with just two MPs in the country after the next general election. Changes are shown as (vs that poll / vs last election). The pollster found. Please click 'Sign in and Subscribe' to continue. British Social Attitudes Survey 39, reported in The Times, 22 Sep 2022Full results I Chapter on Culture WarsMain findings: YouGov, May 2022Full report I DataMain findings: Equalities, Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee, Scottish Parliament, reported 23 May 2022, Wings Over Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 02 May 2022: Voting for people who hate you. The SNP is on 30 per cent, the Tories on 15 per cent and the Lib Dems on 11, with others on 3 per cent. More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. In 2022, the level of people polled citing dont know has fluctuated around the 5%-8% level. The latest YouGov/Times voting intention poll, conducted a fortnight after Rishi Sunak became prime minister, shows Labour maintaining a significant lead over the Conservatives. Another. * Prediction from Electoral Calculus using the figures from the latest YouGov opinion poll. We use your sign-up to provide content in the ways you've consented to and improve our understanding of you. The YouGov poll of voting intention conducted over Wednesday and Thursday showed 54% support for Labour and 21% for the Conservatives. Opinion polling for UK general elections; 2010 election; Opinion polls: 2015 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: 2017 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: . Four in ten Scottish voters want Nicola Sturgeon to resign, new poll suggests, Four in 10 Scots think Sturgeon should stand down, poll finds, Nicola Sturgeon opinion poll finds more than three-quarters of Scots think she should go, First Minister of Scotland: Runners and riders. Scottish opinion polls (Westminster voting intention) since the December 2019 general election are listed here . State of the Nation. The latest voting intention survey puts Labour a whopping 28 points ahead of the Tories, with Rishi Sunak's party flirting with sub-20 numbers in what would be a historic low. Nicola Sturgeon expected to resign as Scottish First Minister today But why? Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Meanwhile, the latest opinion polls suggest it will be a knife-edge after a recent drop in SNP's approval rating and a small rise in Labour and Conservatives. While polls should always be treated with caution, Labour supporters have celebrated the latest figures. This time 12 months ago, the Conservative party was still just ahead in the polls. Coming into the autumn, the Conservatives appeared to have suffered no adverse polling impacts from either their proposed rise in national insurance, or the autumn fuel shortages. That opinion poll lead so far appears unaffected by Nicola Sturgeons announcement that she was standing down as first minister in mid February 2023. The above analysis of general election polls has been calculated through linear average equation modelling of the latest UK opinion polls of Westminster voting intention. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Yougov (January 26) which placed the Yes side on 46.5% and the No side on 53.5%, post adjusting for undecided voters. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023 and it will rise to 14% by 2024. When Johnson announced his resignation on July 7, 2022, YouGov polling showed Labour on 40% and the Tories on 29% an 11 point lead. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Voting Intention. The figures show the Conservatives on 28% of the vote (-4 from our previous survey on 21-23 September) to Labour's 45% (+5) - this is the highest Labour lead YouGov has ever recorded. It was one of the biggest news stories of our. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email: Inside Labour's battle to retake Scotland as party warned not to 'count chickens too soon', Public mental health is the true measure of political success. The Conservatives meanwhile have dropped to 21% of current vote intention, down seven points. And while 33 per cent said the UK Government was wrong to have blocked the bill, 50 per cent said it was right or within its rights to do so. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeons approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. Politics.co.uks current Westminster projections are also drawn through an aggregate extrapolation of the data on election polls. But we can't do it without you. Most of the pollsters listed were members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abided by its disclosure rules.. On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. Prior to the collapse in Conservative polling in 2022, it was suggested that equalising constituencies may assist the Conservatives by as many as 10 seats, given that the partys seats in the south of England are currently numerically larger than those found elsewhere in the country. Six reasons Labour might not win the next election alone, Urban Flight A real threat to many formerly safe seats in the Blue Wall. Redfield and Wilton (5 February) which placed Labour on 50%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 10%. ", Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. Former Conservative party chairman: Sue Gray appointment proves Starmer is man of the establishment. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. had started to nudge back up towards 40%. All Rights Reserved. However, it follows two other polls published in the last 48-hours that have put Labour well ahead of the Tories. This includes a majority of those who agree the people should be freely able to express their transgender identity. Entering the summer, levels of Conservative support took a sudden 3% hit following the resignation of then health secretary, Matt Hancock, in June 2021. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. It is vital that free media is allowed to exist to expose hypocrisy, corruption, wrongdoing and abuse of power. Stay informed. Two new UK-wide opinion polls have added weight to the growing belief that Labour would be close to catching the SNP if a General Election were held anytime soon. Keir Starmer's lead over Rishi Sunak has increased to 7 pointsin terms of the party leader Britons think would make the best prime minister, by 34% (+2) to 27% (-1). Access the latest polls, survey results and articles . Click to get a sign-in link sent to your email. Following a lull in political activity over Christmas 2021, the Conservatives appeared to be recovering in early 2022, clawing back approximately half of the poll losses that they had seen before the festive period. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Voting Intention. Critics pointed out that the survey contained many in the 24 to 49-year-old age bracket. Question Asked "Imagine the next Westminster Election was a de facto referendum on Scottish Independence If the Westminster Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for? Crucially for the Union, the SNP would be some distance off a majority share if the election was to be regarded as a 'de facto' referendum on independence, as Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40 per cent to 36. Indeed between October 2020 and January 2021, the two major parties were running neck and neck. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Scottish independence. YouGov: The Times: GB 2,003 23% 46%: 9% 4% 7% 8% 3%. Subscribe to our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. Humza Yousaf blasted as he promises to spend taxpayer cash on more independence prospectuses, The Scottish Government health secretary, and front-runner to replace Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister, used his speech in Arbroath to claim that he was going to 'kickstart the independence campaign', Ange Postecoglou hails Reo Hatate Celtic impact as he makes 'another couple of levels' claim. Dates. The YouGov polling for The Times also suggests widespread public dissatisfaction with the government's economic plan. 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Scots cop claims World's End serial killer committed 'three more murders in Glasgow ', Retired detective Allan Jones claims Sinclair should have been tried for the murders Anna Kenny, Hilda McAuley and Agnes Cooney, Eddie Howe makes damning Ryan Fraser Newcastle admission as Scotland star's 'commitment' questioned. In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. Former Sun boss and arch right-winger Kelvin MacKenzie also seemed to reach the same conclusion. It was a survey of more than 1,700 British adults. Any variations that might have an impact on the poll result, such as excluding 16- to 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. ((__lxGc__=window.__lxGc__||{'s':{},'b':0})['s']['_222513']=__lxGc__['s']['_222513']||{'b':{}})['b']['_680898']={'i':__lxGc__.b++}; Never miss the day's key interactions and exchanges in parliament. In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. Although it is only a relatively small Scottish sample (148 people out of 1702 polled in total across the UK), the results would see 23 Nats lose their seats to leave them with 25 MPs. This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. New projections based on YouGov polling suggest the Conservative Party could be reduced to the UKs fourth-biggest party at the next election. Last updated Feb 21, 2023 View all Surveys (8) We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. For Labour and the Lib Dems parties which also supported the legislation and oppose Westminsters intervention the figures are 13 per cent and 14 per cent respectively., The Times poll, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 11 Feb 2023. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Get the latest news from the Express straight to your inbox. The latest Panelbase survey for The Sunday Time shows those aged 16 to 35 back independence by 62 per cent, compared to 48 per cent for Scottish voters as a whole. In late February 2022, and prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were some tentative signs that the Conservative position had recovered slightly from its early 2022 lows. A YouGov poll for the Times, reported today, found that nearly 50% of voters in Scotland who plan to vote Tory are doing so primarily to prevent a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. A survey for YouGov gives the SNP a vote share of 36 per cent, with Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives on 19 with the Lib Dems just ahead of the Greens on seven and five per cent respectively. Copyright 1997 - 2023 NewsNow Publishing Limited. A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds that Florida Gov. Boris Johnson may have misled Parliament over Partygate, investigating MPs have claimed, Matt Hancocks reaction to his affair with Gina Coladangelo has been revealed in leaked WhatsApp messages, Numerous Russian attacks in eastern Donetsk have been repelled in the past day, Ukraines military has said, The White House has confirmed that Joe Biden had a cancerous skin lesion removed last month, At least 17 people have died in a fire at a fuel depot in Indonesia, Saving Private Ryan actor Tom Sizemore has died aged 61 after a brain aneurysm, Labour were just two points behind the SNP in Scotland before Nicola Sturgeon's shock, Support for Scottish independence at 46% before Nicola Sturgeon resigned poll. Support for Welsh independence has fallen back to its lowest level in three years, a St David's Day poll for Wales carried out by pollsters YouGov has shown. Latest news on Scottish Opinion Polls, including political opinion polls, voting intention polls, and opinion poll analysis. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Scottish independence. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence. Only 44 per cent of those most likely to back the SNP said the same. Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.